Play Sheet

by Playoff Predictors

Week 1 Game Changing Plays: Tyreek Hill is Unstoppable

7 min read
10 months ago Bryan Knowles
Week 1's biggest plays of the week feature a healthy dose of Tyreek Hill, rookie debuts from Jalen Carter and Brian Branch, and the Cardinals successfully Cardinaling.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

And we’re off!  Week 1 is almost entirely in the books, and the usual leaps to conclusions after just one week is well on its way.  You can’t win or lose a playoff slot in Week 1, but you sure can drop a game you wish you had back by the time January rolls around.

On Monday mornings every week, PlaySheet will highlight the 10 plays that altered the playoff race the most from the previous week. Early on, that’s going to be very similar to a list of most win probability added, as we’re treating every team as starting the season with an equal chance at making the playoffs. Yes, obviously we know that the Arizona Cardinals are far less likely to make the playoffs than the San Francisco 49ers are, but we’ll let them prove that on the field before crossing them off our proverbial lists.  Everyone’s got to start somewhere, after all.

10. Big Play Darius Slay Sets the Tone

After jumping out to an early lead, the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense sputtered a bit; they failed to find the end zone after the first quarter. Not to worry, however, as the defense had their backs. The very first Patriots drive of the season saw Mac Jones sail a pass high to Kendrick Bourne, the ball bouncing off of his hands and into the waiting arms of Darius Slay. The 70-yard touchdown return stretched Philadelphia’s lead to 10-0, and saw their win probability shoot up from 61% to 77%. They would end up leading wire-to-wire, though things got a little tighter than they’d like before the end.

9. Doug Pederson: If At First You Don’t Succeed…

If you’re analytically inclined, watching the Jaguars-Colts matchup warmed your proverbial heart. Both teams went for it multiple times on fourth and short — and continued to do so, even after failing, rather than clamming up and playing too conservatively. Ben Baldwin’s fourth down calculator encouraged the teams to go for in fourth down eight times; they combined for six attempts. The biggest one? That went to Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Down 4 with 7:26 left, Jacksonville could have kicked a 32-yard field goal to cut the lead to one, and hope for a defensive stop. That would have given them an estimated 42% chance to win the game. Instead, they went for the jugular, a decision that gave the Jags +3.8% win probability, per the Baldwin Bot. Trevor Lawrence hit Zay Jones on a quick route, setting up Tank Bigsby’s touchdown three plays later, giving them a 24-21 lead they would never relinquish.

8. Chiefs Get Too Cute By Half

It’s your old FO favorite, the Mike Martz Award for Confusing Coaching!

Andy Reid is reluctant to have Patrick Mahomes run a QB sneak, perhaps because he’s the best player in football and getting him hurt seems like a poor long-term strategy. Fair enough, although that’s likely being too cautious. But in that case, just run a regular running play up the gut on 3rd-and-1! Down one midway through the fourth quarter, the Chiefs instead ran an end around to rookie Rashee Rice that never stood a chance. Josh Pascal blew up the play immediately, and the Chiefs had to punt it away.

7. Justin Herbert Gets Swarmed

After the Dolphins scored a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter (and we’ll get to that), they left the door cracked open by missing the ensuing extra point. The Chargers got the ball back on their own 25 with 1:45 left, needing just a field goal to win. After a quick first down, what happened next? Justin Herbert gets flagged for intentional grounding, setting up 2nd-and-21. Then Herbert gets sacked by Zach Seiler, setting up 3rd-and-30. A completion to Mike Williams set up 4th-and-12, but Herbert took another sack, turning the ball over on downs and ending the game.

6. Chase McLaughlin’s Got the Leg

Someone has to win the NFC South — it’s a rule, we checked. Why not the Buccaneers? The most impressive field goal of Week 1 comes from the leg of Chase McLaughlin, who launched a 57-yarder with five minutes to go break a 17-17 tie. As for the Vikings? After going 11-0 in one-score games in 2022, they’ve started 0-1 in 2023. Regression to the mean: it’s a real thing.

5. Kadarius Toney IS Iron Hands

Keep Choppin’ Wood, Kadarius Toney. The Chiefs needed someone to step up with Travis Kelce out, and Toney did the opposite of that. Toney had one of the worst days a receiver could possibly have. He was targeted five times, with one reception for one yard. He dropped three of his remaining four targets, with this one bouncing right off his hands and right into the arms of second-round pick Brian Branch, who couldn’t believe his good fortune as he ran right into the end zone. This shows up on Patrick Mahomes’ statline? Good grief.

4. Tyreek Hill Is Amazing, Part I

If you started Tyreek Hill in your fantasy league, you had a pretty good day. This play was the go-ahead touchdown with less than two minutes to go, a nifty fade with Michael Davis draped all over him. We’ll get back to you in a minute, Tyreek.

3. Welcome to the NFL, Jalen Carter

Jalen Carter’s NFL debut saw him record six pressures, tied for the most for a rookie defensive tackle in the past five seasons, per NextGen Stats. Sure, it was against some backup guards for New England, but on a day where Philadelphia’s offense was stuck in neutral, Carter and the Eagles’ pass rush stepped up when they needed to most. Carter’s first sack came in the closing minute of the game, burning New England’s last time out and setting up a 3rd-and-13 they ultimately could not convert.

2. Cardinals Going to Cardinal

Do I think the Cardinals were ever going to make the playoffs in 2023? No. Do I think that whatever thin odds they had would have been massively improved had they upset the Commanders, destroying Survivor pools everywhere? Yes. Arizona was feisty, staying in the game against Washington far longer than expected. Ultimately, though, a combination of a stingy Commander defense and shooting themselves in foot preserved the loss and kept the 0-17 season alive. Joshua Dobbs was sacked three times, losing two fumbles in the process. The last one was on a botched snap, when the Cardinals had the ball nearly at midfield down just one point with less than five minutes to play. Montez Sweat made sure the ball stayed loose, and Washington recovered, lowering Arizona’s win probability from 44% to just 14%. That’s still about 14% than anyone would have had it coming into the game, but Arizona couldn’t do anything after Washington tacked on a field goal, and they ended up losing 20-16.

1. Tyreek Hill is Amazing, Part II

Hill finished the day with 11 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Forget his goal of 2,000 receiving yards; he’s technically on pace for 3,000 at the moment. The play we’re picking as the biggest of the week was a 47-yard completion on 3rd-and-10, setting up the game-winning touchdown from a few entries previous, but we could just run a full highlight reel of Hill’s catches from Sunday. Don’t discount Tua Tagovailoa climbing the pocket to hit him, and pity anyone who has to try to keep up with Hill’s speed when given a free release, regardless of down or distance. Hill caught six of his eight targets of 10 air yards or more, picking up 188 yards just on intermediate and deep passes. You can argue whether or not Justin Jefferson or JaMarr Chase is the best receiver in the NFL; Hill remains the absolute king of the deep shot.

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Bryan Knowles

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