Week 14 Playoff Update: Jaguars, Eagles Face Major Questions

For the last couple weeks, we’ve been gong over one or two big games, breaking them down, and explaining how they affect the playoff race. Well, we’re not doing that this week, because there isn’t one or two games important enough to really cover.

There are four.

Yes, Week 14 brings us a quartet of quality matchups with outsized impacts on the playoff picture, as we get down into the nitty gritty of the season. In the early window on Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams (6-6) continue to fight for their playoff lives against the Baltimore Ravens (9-3), who have control of their own fate for the AFC bye week but a brutal schedule the rest of the way. At the same time, the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4), reeling from at least the temporary loss of Trevor Lawrence, try to right the ship against the Cleveland Browns (7-5), who are out of quarterbacks themselves. In the late window, the San Francisco 49ers (9-3) try to ride the momentum of their blowout victory over Philadelphia to take over the top slot in the NFC, against the poor Seattle Seahawks (6-6) clinging on to the playoff picture for dear life. And then, on Sunday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) try to play their way back into the NFC East picture against the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2), still in first place but not feeling so hot today.

That’s a heck of a Sunday slate; more than enough to tide us over from snoozers like Saints-Panthers. The top seeds in both conferences, the wildcard races, and even the once-thought-sealed NFC East race will all be very much in play. We’ve got a lot to cover – and we’re already a day late, besides – so let’s dive into it, shall we? And since the games are so interconnected, let’s go by playoff race rather than strictly by game, to help us get a clearer picture.

No Trevor, No Top Seed?

Trevor Lawrence’s injury throws a spanner into the works at the top of the AFC. Entering Monday Night, the Jaguars had control of their own fate at the top of the conference – win out, and they’re #1, with only one particularly tough match against Baltimore remaining on the schedule. That schedule looks a lot harder with C.J. Beathard under center than Lawrence, however, and now the Jags have to worry about holding on to the AFC South first, before they even get into the question of home games and bye weeks. FTN, adjusting Jacksonville’s strength to try to account for Lawrence’s injury, now gives Jacksonville a 58.3% chance of winning the division, with the Texans hanging in at 24%, the Colts at 18%, and the Titans also technically, mathematically alive.

The latest on Lawrence is that he has a high ankle sprain, and the Jags are holding out hope he could actually still play this week. That is, shall we say, optimistic, to say the least. But there’s hope that he could get back before the end of the season, and so the Jaguars are very much still in the race here. If anything, the Jags should rest Lawrence this week and hope for the miracle comeback next week, against Baltimore, where they’ll need all hands on deck. The real question is, with only one gimme game left on the schedule (Carolina in Week 17), can the Jaguars afford to take it easy against the Browns?

The short answer is no. Let’s try to map out the Jaguars’ path without significant upsets. Just for the sake of argument, let’s assume that every team both at home with a higher DVOA will win the rest of the way in the AFC title picture. That’s obviously far from a guarantee, of course; upsets happen all the time. But starting with “the true contenders will win at home” is a decent starting point to try to map out the rest of the race. It doesn’t make much sense for anyone to be putting too many eggs in the “what if the Titans upset the Dolphins?” basket at this point, and any world where the Jaguars are losing to Carolina at home isn’t one where they have a ghost of a chance to win the AFC title anyway. Let’s also assume any road team with at least a 40% gap in their DVOA also wins, just because I don’t want to have to try to pretend that the Patriots beating the Chiefs is something we need to worry about at the moment. That would put the top of the AFC picture like this:

First of all, ahh! The Texans, right on Jacksonville’s tail, just a half game back. That’s less than ideal.

Secondly, you can see that there’s essentially no wriggle room for Jacksonville under these assumptions. Jacksonville’s only path to the playoffs here would be:

Jacksonville d. Cleveland, Baltimore, Tampa Bay AND Tennessee – in short, they win out
Kansas City loses in Week 18 to Los Angeles, because otherwise they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jaguars and Dolphins at 13-4.

That’s it. That’s one reason the Lawrence injury and the loss to Cincinnati hurt so much – there’s just no wriggle room left on the schedule. Reasonable upsets elsewhere could affect things – the Bills beating the Chiefs or Dolphins is far from crazy – but with three quality teams ahead of them in the standings, the Jaguars have no wriggle room. In the most likely scenarios, Jacksonville has to either win out or play on wildcard weekend.

Jacksonville should be fine to at least make the postseason, though, even if Lawrence’s injury keeps him out all year. Just beating the Panthers in Week 17 would make them about a 50/50 shot, and any other win gets them to 10 victories and an almost assured playoff position. They need to go 4-1 to guarantee it (which would also clinch the AFC South), but it would take a significant disaster for Jacksonville to miss out now. Whether starting C.J. Beathard for a month counts as a significant disaster remains an exercise for the reader.

Would the Last Quarterback in the AFC North Turn Out the Lights?

The Jaguars aren’t the only team missing their starter, of course. Somehow, the oft-injured Lamar Jackson is the last quarterback standing in the AFC North, with Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett all down and out, at least for now. Knock on wood, throw salt over your shoulder, avoid ladders and mirrors and stepping on cracks; Baltimore is dodging the injury plague the rest of the division is suffering and skipping to freedom.

Baltimore is basically co-leaders in DVOA with San Francisco, and their playoff odds back that up – 90% to win the division, per FTN. Interestingly, FTN basically splits the remaining 10% equally between the Browns and Steelers, but I disagree. I don’t think the division is quite sewn up yet for the Ravens, but there’s only one team who can do it and one path they can take, a path opened up by Lawrence’s injury on Monday night (see how this all ties together?)

The Steelers are given 5.7% odds in the simulation because DVOA really thinks they’re quite good. 10^th in DVOA at 9.2%, and a non-disastrous 18th on offense. Viewers of the Matt Canada experience would disagree with that, but the argument is that the Steelers faced such a tough slate of opposing defenses that anyone would have struggled – it’s not all Canada’s fault. That’s true to an extent, but what we’ve seen of the offense post-Canada hasn’t been inspiring, either. They moved the ball against Cincinnati, going over 400 yards, but only scored 16 points. They then regressed again in the weird start-and-stop game against Arizona. With injury concerns on both sides of the ball, and road trips to Indianapolis, Seattle and Baltimore still on the cards, I don’t think the Steelers have any chance of catching the Ravens. Even if Thursday ends up being a walkover against the significantly worse Patriots, and even if their defense can throttle a Burrowless Bengals in Week 16, without a massive upset over Baltimore in the last week of the season, there is essentially no realistic path for Pittsburgh to win the division. 5.7% is too high. Count them out.

But what of Cleveland? Joe Flacco was cromulent, if not good, in his debut from the street last week; with a week of practice, maybe he improves. The defense was record-setting early in the year; maybe they can catch up to that form. We’ve seen a good Cleveland team this year; a good Pittsburgh team is still mostly theoretical.

Let’s say the Ravens win out at home – the Rams this week, and the Dolphins and Steelers to wrap up the season. That leaves two tough road games – the heavyweight slog against the 49ers on Christmas Day, and the much-scarier-if-Lawrence-gets-healthy trip to Jacksonville next week. Let’s say Baltimore loses both of those, finishing at 12-5.

Cleveland then has a chance to run the table. Their odds of winning this week shot up with Lawrence’s injury. They get the struggling Bears at home next week, and finish with the quarterback implosion that is the Jets and the battered and bruised Bengals. The Texans in Week 16 is the toughest test, but let’s assume, for the moment, the Browns come out on top. They also finish 12-5 then. Both teams would be 4-2 in the division, and so the result would go to common games – a tiebreaker Cleveland wins, in large part because Baltimore lost to the Colts back in Week 3.

Likely? No, not at all. But it’s the one realistic path to Baltimore not taking home the title. If Beathard and the Jaguars beat the Browns this week, Baltimore can assume the AFC North title for themselves. But there’s still a chance out there…

AFC Wildcard Update

There are far too many scenarios to break down in the AFC wildcard, but here are the current relevant odds from FTN, for reference’s sake. These are the total playoffs odds for teams not in first place, so they do include scenarios where they end up winning the division.

Houston: 76.0%
Cleveland: 67.8%
Indianapolis: 62.9%
Pittsburgh: 56.9%
Denver: 13.6%
Cincinnati: 12.8%
Buffalo: 12.4%
Los Angeles: 12.1%

That’s four teams over 50% for three slots. Yes, Houston or Indianapolis might catch the AFC South title, but that just means Jacksonville is in this mess, too. Somebody is going to be significantly disappointed over these final five weeks. My money’s on Pittsburgh, but there’s a lot to play for here.

Can the Eagles Hold On?

After a couple weeks of hanging on by the edge of their seats, the Eagles got punched in the mouth by the 49ers last Sunday. They maintain their leads in both the division and conference, but they feel vulnerable in a way pundits didn’t want to admit before. DVOA has had them in the bottom of the top 10 all season long; now, it’s beginning to feel like that’s where they belong, rather than the team being underrated for various and sundry reasons.

That being said, the Eagles are still a good team with the best record in football, and the baby-soft ending schedule of Giants-Cardinals-Giants. Maybe they’ve lost the conference momentum (and, more importantly, the tiebreaker) to San Francisco, but their lead is a significant asset, they have winnable games ahead, and they’re still the favorites in the East.

That is, assuming they beat Dallas on Sunday Night.

The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites over Philadelpha at home, despite the Eagles winning 28-23 at the beginning of November. The long slog of the Gauntlet finally catching up to Philly? Dallas getting overhyped after shellacking some of the lesser lights of the NFC? Or are the Cowboys, as advanced stats claim, the better team and are well positioned to get some revenge? It’s a hell of a SNF matchup, at any rate.

The immediate stakes here is that the winner is in first place in the NFC East. But considering the schedules remaining, it’s more apt to think of this as Dallas’ last chance.

The Cowboys do not need to beat the Eagles to have a mathematical chance of winning the division. But, as that would give Philadelphia the head-to-head sweep, it would remove all legitimate chances Dallas claims to have. Dallas and Philadelpha each have four games remaining after this week; Dallas would need at least seven of them to go their way to still win the division despite a loss this week. The Cowboys have tough games left against the Bills and Dolphins; the Eagles the aforementioned cakewalk to end the year. To have seven of those eight games go Dallas’ way is, quite simply, preposterous. So while this isn’t technically for the NFC East title, it might as well be for all intents and purposes.

Even if the Cowboys do win, the road to catch the Eagles is extremely difficult. If we conservatively project the Eagles to go 2-1 against their end of season slate, letting them slip up once against the Giants to give Dallas as much help as we can, Dallas would still need to win at least two, probably three, and possibly all four of their remaining games to win the division. And if the Eagles do manage to go 3-0 against that end slate, Dallas’ only path to victory would be for Philadelphia to lose to Seattle, and for Dallas to beat Buffalo, Miami, and Washington. (Detroit, oddly, wouldn’t matter, as Dallas would win that 13-4 tiebreak on common games). It’s a long shot.

So while this is going to be billed as “the battle for first place in the NFC East”, it’s really a contest to see if Dallas even has a chance going down the stretch. Having to beat a 10-2 team to even be in the conversation is a tough situation to be in.

49ers Coming for the Title

So if Philadelphia is still in good shape for the division even with a loss, what about the bye week? The 49ers are a game back, but are double-digit favorites against the Seahawks this week. An Eagles loss and a 49ers win would put San Francisco into first place. Can the Eagles recover against that?

The problem here is that the 49ers are going to be massive favorites in four of their five remaining games, with only the Christmas game against Baltimore looking to really give them a challenge. If the 49ers win those four games, they’re sitting at 13 wins, with a 14th over Baltimore certainly within reach.

If Philadelphia beats Dallas, it’s entirely reasonable to catch SF. In fact, I’d go so far as call it a 50/50 chance. If you do the same sort of projection we did for the AFC bye week race, spotting home favorites their wins, then the Eagles win 32 of the remaining 64 scenarios for the top spot in the NFC, assuming they beat Dallas. But lose? To stay a game ahead of San Francisco there, the Eagles would need to win out and have Baltimore beat San Francisco. Possible, for sure, but the longest of long shots.

So there’s your stakes, Eagles. You’re not going to lose the division if you lose on Sunday night. You’re going to lose the bye week. Your opponents may be wearing blue and white, but they may as well be in red and gold for their impact on your playoff hopes.

NFC Wildcard Race

There are far too many scenarios to break down in the NFC wildcard, but here are the current relevant odds from FTN, for reference’s sake. These are the total playoffs odds for teams not in first place, so they do include scenarios where they end up winning the division.

Dallas: 99.9%
Green Bay: 76.1%
Minnesota: 47.7%
LA Rams: 32.4%
Seattle: 26.1%
Tampa Bay: 31.8% (6.5% wildcard)
New Orleans: 30.1% (6.8% wildcard)

Ignore the NFC South teams; the vast majority of their hopes comes from playing in the weakest division in football.

The two NFC North teams have significant advantages over the two NFC West teams, winning out in basically every tiebreaker situation thanks to head-to-head wins and general conference record strengths. That’s not great for the Rams, but it’s really terrible news for the Seahawks, who close with San Francisco – Philadelphia – Tennessee – Pittsburgh – Arizona. Two titans (plus the Titans), as well as a third team still in the playoff hunt, and they have to pass the teams ahead of them to have a chance. Yikes.