Week 17 Playoff Update: Ravens-Dolphins Has a Postseason Feel
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Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill
What if I told you there was a playoff game in Week 17?
Well, I’d be lying to you. That’s not how the postseason works; the hint is kind of in the name. But, for most intents and purposes, the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins are basically playing a playoff game in the early window of Week 17.
Here’s the logic I’m using — what’s the prize for winning a playoff game? Well, it’s moving on to the next round, of course. And since the winner of Ravens-Dolphins will almost assuredly get the first-round bye in the AFC, thus moving on past the Wild Card round, it’s a playoff game for the winner. QED.
We can quantify “almost assuredly” a little, here. Only the Ravens, Dolphins and Browns can still win the AFC bye week; the Chiefs’ flop against the Raiders knocked them well out of contention, while the Bills and the AFC South trio fell out of the running from basic entropy. That leaves five relevant games to determine a champion; 32 outcomes ignoring ties. And here they are:
The Ravens win 20 of the 32 scenarios, including all 16 if they beat the Dolphins this week. That would give them the option of resting key starters for two full weeks if they so chose, though I imagine the starting lineup would get at least a little bit of a run against Pittsburgh in Week 18 just to prevent rust accumulation. Beating the 49ers — and dramatically, at that, forcing six turnovers! — has given Baltimore an easy cushion the rest of the way…
…assuming they beat the Dolphins, which is far from a guarantee. It’s not quite a win-and-done situation for Miami, mind you. Beating Baltimore would lock up the AFC East and a top-two seed, but they could still fumble the bye week if they lost to the Bills in Week 18, plus either a Ravens win over Pittsburgh or two Cleveland wins. Still, they’d be fairly firmly in the driver’s seat if they could pull it off.
It’s clearly a playoff quality matchup. These are two of the top four teams in the league; a potential AFC Championship preview after Monday’s Super Bowl preview. Heck of a closing schedule for the Ravens, and it’s a shame this is going to get a little lost in the 1 PM shuffle on Sunday; the NFL opted not to flex it to the afternoon window. I still like the Ravens to take this one and earn the bye week with a week to go, but I’d be far from surprised if the track meet the Dolphins call an offense is able to race them up and down the field. Definitely the game of the week, with appropriate stakes to boot. Not such a bad way to wrap up the year.
If the Ravens do win, the knock-on effects are pretty significant. Firstly, it probably flexes Dolphins-Bills to Sunday night in Week 18; unless Buffalo somehow stumbles against the Patriots, we’d be talking about an AFC East championship match. Guaranteed stakes is always something the NFL is going to jump on when flexing their Week 18 schedule.
It also also would significantly impact which AFC Wildcard games are competitive. It’s not just that the Ravens wouldn’t need to go all out against the Steelers. There’s also the knock-on effect on the Browns. Cleveland is very likely to be the #5 seed; wins by the Brown and Ravens this week lock Cleveland there with a game to play. And since they would then have to go on the road in the playoffs, they have all the more reason to rest players against the Bengals, meaning they would likely start Dorian Thompson-Robinson rather than Joe Flacco and rest whatever other warm bodies they could fine.
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh getting easier matchups in Week 18 would be huge for the AFC wildcard race. At the moment, both teams are tied with the Colts and Texans at 8-7 in the final wildcard position, but tiebreakers have the Bengals and Steelers on the outside looking in. The Colts and Texans play each other in Week 18; one of them is going to get to at least nine wins. Being able to match that thanks to playing against a backup lineup would be a huge boon; anything to make your path as easy as possible. As weird as it may seem, the Bengals and Steelers may have to spend the week rooting for their divisional rivals. A long shower will help get feeling off of you after that one, I’m told.
But it’s not just Miami-Baltimore. There are other important games and races being settled in Week 17. Let’s whiparound the league and hit the highlights.
Play-In and Play-Out
Seven teams can clinch playoff berths this week — the Chiefs, Browns, Bills, Jaguars, Rams, Buccaneers and, technically, the Seahawks. Seattle is the odd one out here; the would need to win and have the Packers-Vikings game end in a tie to clinch. That’s almost assuredly not going to happen, but now that I’ve said that and am publishing this, the odds have to jump by at least 50%.
Ten teams can be mathematically eliminated this week — the Vikings, Packers, Bears, Falcons, Saints, Texans, Steelers, Bengals, Raiders and Broncos. Clearing out the chaff as we set ourselves up for the final week of the season.
When you add in the six teams already qualified (49ers, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, Ravens Dolphins) and the eight teams mathematically eliminated (Panthers, Commanders, Cardinals, Giants, Patriots, Jets, Titans and Chargers), you’re left with just the Colts — the only team in the league who is 100% guaranteed to have something to play for in Week 18. Considering they lost Anthony Richardson in September, being here at all is quite impressive.
With 17 teams with major scenarios, there is bound to be some significant head-to-head matchups. And, in fact, there is one game which features finality for both teams — the Saints traveling to face the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay wins the NFC South this week if, and only if, they beat New Orleans. The Saints are eliminated this week if, and only if, they lose to Tampa Bay.
In all honestly, the Buccaneers not winning the South would be a massive upset at this point; if they can’t get the job done against New Orleans, they can always get it done against Carolina in Week 18. But if you’re looking for a game this week where both teams have everything to play for, this is it. There are other games between clashing contenders — Cowboys-Lions, Vikings-Packers, Seahawks-Steelers, Chiefs-Bengals, maybe even Colts-Raiders if you believe what happened on Sunday. But if you’re looking for the game where both teams have the most to care about in it, this is it. Bucs can punch their ticket and send the Saints packing in one fell swoop? Sounds like a plan.
Top of the NFC
We said last week that the loser of the Ravens-49ers game would find their grip on the top seed in their conference slip significantly. Well, that’s San Francisco, so it’s time to look at the top of the NFC. The big four there — 49ers, Lions, Cowboys and Eagles — have locked up the 1, 2, 3 and 5 seeds. And so, while it’s a bit large, we can look at the entirety of the board; all 128 scenarios (ignoring ties) over the last seven relevant games.
That’s a lot there, so let’s walk through a couple things.
Of the 128 scenarios, the 49ers come out with the #1 seed in 69 — a little more than half, but far fewer than there would have been had they beaten Baltimore. Technically, the Lions are next with 21 and the Eagles with 20, but there are 12 scenarios out there which come down to strength of victory between Detroit and Philadelphia, and they favor the Eagles at this point. Those are the scenarios marked with an asterisk in the tables above The Cowboys bring up the rear with just six; the perils of being a game behind.
Of course, not every game is equal. There are a lot of double-digit favorites on that board. The Eagles and 49ers are both double-digit favorites this week; the Cowboys and Eagles should be the same in Week 18. If we, for the sake of argument, assume the double-digit favorites win, that knocks the Cowboys out of the picture entirely; they’d be locked into the fifth seed. The 49ers and Eagles would split the eight remaining top seed scenarios 50/50, with San Francisco winning it if they beat the Rams in Week 18, and losing it otherwise. Honestly, the Rams might be the biggest loser from the Ravens win on Sunday; they will now almost assuredly have to face the wrath of a 49ers team looking to get things right before the playoffs with things to play for, rather than perhaps getting a full game of Sam Darnold and Jordan Mason. And thus did the Seahawks and Vikings and Packers and whatnot rejoice and so on and so forth.
The Eagles-Lions scenarios are worth mentioning a bit. As they never played each other this season, there are plenty of scenarios where Philadelphia and Detroit tie and we have to go to strength of victory. At the moment, that’s advantage Eagles [.479 to .436], but it’s not clinched yet. We don’t know exactly which games will matter here; the Eagles will definitely have the Bills, Rams, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, and Commanders (twice) in their unique win column, while the Lions get the Falcons, Panthers, Bears, Broncos, Packers, Chargers, Raiders and Saints. That’s a much better group of opponents for Philadelphia so I would expect them to keep their lead no matter what, but it’s not a mathematical certainty just yet.
Other Divisional Races
There are two other undecided divisional races we should hit up real quick; both of them hot messes in their own unique ways.
The AFC West was supposed to be clinched by now, but the Chiefs’ offense no-showed against the Raiders, and, well, here we are.
To be clear, the Chiefs should still win the division. A single win over the Bengals or Chargers, or a single loss from each of the Broncos and Raiders, will do it. But the fact that the division is still in play in Week 17 is patently hilarious; an indictment on the Chiefs’ offensive season to this point. If the Bengals beat the Chiefs this week, and the Raiders and Broncos both take care of their end of the deal, expect that to be a Saturday game, putting pressure on the Chiefs against the Chargers in Week 18.
And then there’s the AFC South, which is the biggest shrug of them all.
Jacksonville’s loss to Tampa Bay has split the division wide open. The Jaguars still should win this; they get it if they win out no matter what, and 50% of the time if they win just one game. Lose ’em both, though, and they’re knocked out. They should be able to take care of business against both Carolina and Tennessee, right?…Right?
Either way, Colts-Texans is looking like a great Week 18 Saturday game in and of itself, with it almost assuredly having some stakes unless both teams lose this week and Jacksonville wins. Put some pressure on the Jags for their final game against the Titans. If you know who’s coming out on top here, you’re a better prognosticator than I.
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